Yesterday's poll of our visitors was a big success.
Over 12,000 people voted. This means that the margin of
error is under 1%--a very precise poll. Unfortunately, it
is not at all accurate since the sample was not random in
a statistical sense. The majority think the Democrats
will have 49-51 Senate seats, with 51 being the most
popular choice. Click "View" on yesterday's page for the full results.
Let's try the House today.
We have two Senate polls today, both in key states.
In Virginia, incumbent Sen. George Allen (R-VA) seems to have extracted himself from the
macaca he stepped in earlier and continues to have a small lead over former Navy
Secretary Jim Webb (D), 47% to 43%, according to Mason-Dixon.
In Rhode Island, Rasmussen has Sheldon Whitehouse (D) ahead of incumbent
Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) by 52% to 44%. Chafee has trailed all year. Probably
the only thing he could do now to save his seat is switch to the Democratic party.
Rhode Island voters actually like Chafee; it's the Republican party they don't like.
But I doubt he will switch after all the money the NRSC pumped into his primary.
Four House polls today. An earlier poll in IN-07 showed Eric Dickerson (R) ahead of
Julia Carson (D-IN), which surprised everyone, me included. But a new Research 2000
poll puts her ahead again, 48% to 43%. Given that three nearby Republicans are
probably going to be unseated, it is most unlikely that an Indiana Democrat would lose.
Speaking of unseating Indiana Republicans, Mike Sodrel (R) continues to trail
former congressman Baron Hill (D) in IN-09 , as he has all year. The SurveyUSA poll puts it
as 47% to 43%.
Another closely watched race is NM-01 , where attorney general Patricia Madrid (D)
is leading incumbent Heather Wilson (R-NM) narrowly, 45% to 42%.
While the lead is statistically insignificant, Madrid has led in all recent polls,
so she probably is actually ahead.
Several people asked me about what kind of voting equipment is
used in the key states of Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia.
Information about the equipment can be found
with thanks to Prof. Edward Felten of Princeton, whose work on the
security of voting machines
has caused an uproar).
just released its top 30 races of seats most likely to flip. All the incumbents are Republicans.
The comments are summaries of what NJ said.
Not to be outdone, I have also compiled a top 30, but my list
is simply a list of which Democrats are farthest ahead in the polls.
I don't actual believe in this order myself though.
The third column is the incumbent's margin of victory in 2004.
In New Hampshire, out-of-state college students can vote.
This means that about 5000 Dartmouth students are allowed to vote in the
Bass-Hodes congressional race, and an overwhemling majority will no doubt
vote for Hodes. In a close race, the student vote might tip it.
Projected New House*: 229 Democrats 205 Republicans 1 Tie
See the details of the
House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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