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Projected New Senate:     50 Democrats     50 Republicans    

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strong Dem Strong Dem (43)
weak Dem Weak Dem (5)
barely Dem Barely Dem (2)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (2)
weak GOP Weak GOP (2)
strong GOP Strong GOP (46)
No Senate race No Senate race
  Map algorithm explained
Oct. 24 New polls: RI VA RSS
  Pickups: Missouri Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

News from the Votemaster

Poll of the Day

Yesterday's poll of our visitors was a big success. Over 12,000 people voted. This means that the margin of error is under 1%--a very precise poll. Unfortunately, it is not at all accurate since the sample was not random in a statistical sense. The majority think the Democrats will have 49-51 Senate seats, with 51 being the most popular choice. Click "View" on yesterday's page for the full results. Let's try the House today.

How many House seats will the Democrats win?
<210 210-214 215-217 218-219 220-224 225-230 >230   

Senate Polls

We have two Senate polls today, both in key states. In Virginia, incumbent Sen. George Allen (R-VA) seems to have extracted himself from the macaca he stepped in earlier and continues to have a small lead over former Navy Secretary Jim Webb (D), 47% to 43%, according to Mason-Dixon.

In Rhode Island, Rasmussen has Sheldon Whitehouse (D) ahead of incumbent Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) by 52% to 44%. Chafee has trailed all year. Probably the only thing he could do now to save his seat is switch to the Democratic party. Rhode Island voters actually like Chafee; it's the Republican party they don't like. But I doubt he will switch after all the money the NRSC pumped into his primary.

State Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse Lincoln Chafee* Oct 23 1 52% 44%   Rasmussen
Virginia Jim Webb George Allen* Oct 19 3 43% 47%   Mason-Dixon

House Polls

Four House polls today. An earlier poll in IN-07 showed Eric Dickerson (R) ahead of Julia Carson (D-IN), which surprised everyone, me included. But a new Research 2000 poll puts her ahead again, 48% to 43%. Given that three nearby Republicans are probably going to be unseated, it is most unlikely that an Indiana Democrat would lose.

Speaking of unseating Indiana Republicans, Mike Sodrel (R) continues to trail former congressman Baron Hill (D) in IN-09 , as he has all year. The SurveyUSA poll puts it as 47% to 43%.

Another closely watched race is NM-01 , where attorney general Patricia Madrid (D) is leading incumbent Heather Wilson (R-NM) narrowly, 45% to 42%. While the lead is statistically insignificant, Madrid has led in all recent polls, so she probably is actually ahead.

Cong. Distr. Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
CA-04 Charles Brown John Doolittle* Oct 22 3 41% 51%   SurveyUSA
IN-07 Julia Carson* Eric Dickerson Oct 20 4 48% 43%   Research 2000
IN-09 Baron Hill Mike Sodrel* Oct 22 3 47% 43%   SurveyUSA
NM-01 Patricia Madrid Heather Wilson* Oct 19 3 45% 42%   Res. and Polling



Several people asked me about what kind of voting equipment is used in the key states of Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia. Information about the equipment can be found here with thanks to Prof. Edward Felten of Princeton, whose work on the security of voting machines has caused an uproar).

The respected National Journal just released its top 30 races of seats most likely to flip. All the incumbents are Republicans. The comments are summaries of what NJ said.

# District Democrat Republican Comment
1 AZ-08 Gabrielle Giffords Randy Graf GOP has all but given up here
2 TX-22 Nick Lampson Shelley Gibbs Lampson has lots of money; Gibbs is a write-in
3 IN-08 Brad Ellsworth John Hostettler* NRCC has stopped putting money in
4 PA-10 Christopher Carney Don Sherwood* Don had a 5-year affair with a young woman
5 PA-07 Joseph Sestak Curt Weldon* Sestak has more money and the FBI is after Weldon
6 FL-16 Tim Mahoney Joe Negron This is Foley's seat
7 OH-18 Zack Space Joy Padgett Rep. Bob Ney is going to jail
8 CO-07 Ed Perlmutter Rick O'Donnell Open seat, O'Donnell has cash but not enough
9 IN-02 Joe Donnelly Chris Chocola* NRCC is not spending here
10 OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy Deborah Pryce* House leader #4 demanded a debate!
11 NY-26 Jack Davis Tom Reynolds* Reynolds knew about Foley long ago
12 NC-11 Heath Shuler Charles Taylor* Taylor is demanding a debate
13 IN-09 Baron Hill Mike Sodrel* Hill has lots of money
14 IA-01 Bruce Braley Mike Whalen Getting closer and NRCC hasn't given up yet
15 CT-04 Diane Farrell Chris Shays* Shays is tied closely to Iraq
16 PA-06 Lois Murphy Jim Gerlach* Big fight in Berks County
17 NY-24 Michael Arcuri Ray Meier NRCC dirty ad may backfire
18 FL-22 Ron Klein Clay Shaw* Shaw may be hurt by Foley
19 NM-01 Patricia Madrid Heather Wilson* A bellwether district
20 IL-06 Tammy Duckworth Peter Roskam Duckworth is running low on money
21 CT-05 Chris Murphy Nancy Johnson* Nasty ads back and forth
22 WA-08 Darcy Burner Dave Reichert* Burner is outraising Reichert
23 CT-02 Joe Courtney Robert Simmons* Simmons has a chance to survive a tidal wave
24 MN-06 Patty Wetterling Michele Bachmann Preacher endorsed Bachmann from pulpit (illegal)
25 OH-01 John Cranley Steve Chabot* Cranley is out of money, but Ohio is tough for GOP
26 PA-08 Patrick Murphy Mike Fitzpatrick* Murphy is an antiwar Iraq veteran
27 WI-08 Steve Kagen John Gard* Taxes and immigration are big here
28 VA-02 Phil Kellam Thelma Drake* Drake must win the military vote here
29 FL-13 Christine Jennings Vern Buchanan GOP big guns here all the time
30 KY-04 Ken Lucas Geoff Davis* Davis is running out of money

Not to be outdone, I have also compiled a top 30, but my list is simply a list of which Democrats are farthest ahead in the polls. I don't actual believe in this order myself though. The third column is the incumbent's margin of victory in 2004.

# District 2004 Polls Democrat Republican
1 IN-08 8% D+23 Brad Ellsworth John Hostettler*
2 OH-15 20% D+12 Mary Jo Kilroy Deborah Pryce*
3 NY-29 10% D+12 Eric Massa Randy Kuhl*
4 NY-24 23% D+11 Michael Arcuri Ray Meier
5 PA-10 93% D+9 Christopher Carney Don Sherwood*
6 OH-18 32% D+9 Zack Space Joy Padgett
7 NY-19 34% D+9 John Hall Sue Kelly*
8 NH-02 20% D+9 Paul Hodes Charlie Bass*
9 VT-AL 17% D+8 Peter Welch Martha Rainville
10 TX-22 14% D+8 Nick Lampson Shelley Gibbs
11 PA-07 19% D+8 Joseph Sestak Curt Weldon*
12 NY-25 90% D+8 Dan Maffei James Walsh*
13 NC-11 10% D+8 Heath Shuler Charles Taylor*
14 AZ-08 24% D+8 Gabrielle Giffords Randy Graf
15 NC-08 11% D+7 Larry Kissell Robin Hayes*
16 FL-16 36% D+7 Tim Mahoney Joe Negron
17 PA-06 2% D+6 Lois Murphy Jim Gerlach*
18 MN-06 8% D+5 Patty Wetterling Michele Bachmann
19 IN-02 9% D+5 Joe Donnelly Chris Chocola*
20 CT-04 4% D+5 Diane Farrell Christopher Shays*
21 AZ-01 23% D+4 Ellen Simon Rick Renzi*
22 IN-09 1% D+4 Baron Hill Mike Sodrel*
23 NM-01 8% D+3 Patricia Madrid Heather Wilson*
24 FL-13 10% D+3 Christine Jennings Vern Buchanan
25 WI-08 40% D+2 Steve Kagen John Gard*
26 KY-03 22% D+1 John Yarmuth Anne Northup*
27 IA-02 20% D+1 Dave Loebsack Jim Leach*
28 CO-07 12% Tie Ed Perlmutter Rick O'Donnell
29 MN-01 24% R+1 Tim Walz Gil Gutknecht*
30 VA-02 10% R+2 Phil Kellam Thelma Drake*

In New Hampshire, out-of-state college students can vote. This means that about 5000 Dartmouth students are allowed to vote in the Bass-Hodes congressional race, and an overwhemling majority will no doubt vote for Hodes. In a close race, the student vote might tip it.

Projected New House*:     229 Democrats     205 Republicans     1 Tie
* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

Dem pickups: AZ-01 AZ-08 CT-04 FL-13 FL-16 IA-02 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 MN-06 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

GOP pickups:
Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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