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Projected New Senate:     50 Democrats     50 Republicans    

Polling data in Excel
Battleground states
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strong Dem Strong Dem (43)
weak Dem Weak Dem (5)
barely Dem Barely Dem (2)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (2)
weak GOP Weak GOP (2)
strong GOP Strong GOP (46)
No Senate race No Senate race
  Map algorithm explained
Oct. 21 New polls: CT NE NY RSS
  Pickups: Missouri Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

News from the Votemaster

Senate Polls

With yet two more polls showing him substantially ahead, it looks like incumbent Sen. Joe Lieberman, running as an independent and with great support from the Republicans, is going to save his skin. In the Quinnipiac University poll, Lieberman leads the real Democrat, Ned Lamont, 52% to 35% and in the ARG poll it is 49% to 37%.

In New York, Hillary is romping to an easy win and so is Democrat Ben Nelson of Nebraska. This was really a missed opportunity for the Republicans. They should have fielded a far stronger candidate and they could have at least made Nelson sweat.

State Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
Conn. Ned Lamont Alan Schlesinger Oct 20 3 37% 9% 49% ARG
Conn. Ned Lamont Alan Schlesinger Oct 19 3 35% 6% 52% Quinnipiac U.
Nebraska Ben Nelson* Pete Ricketts Oct 16 1 54% 34%   Rasmussen
New York Hillary Clinton* John Spencer Oct 18 3 67% 30%   Marist Coll.

House Polls

The only House poll today is CT-02, where incumbent Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) is in a statistical tie with Joe Courtney (D), leading 46% to 44%. This race shows the power of incumbency. The district is the most Democratic district in the country held by a Republican. This is a blue district in a blue state and Courtney is an experienced politician (he is a former state representative and candidate for Lt. governor). In an open race, any compentent Democrat could win in a landslide. Probably the same is true of the Nebraska Senate race (above).

Cong. Distr. Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
CT-02 Joe Courtney Robert Simmons* Oct 18 7 44% 46%   U. of Conn.


Between industrial-strength gerrymandering and the advantages of incumbency, it is very hard to defeat an unindicted sitting congressman, as noted above. Consequently, a lot of attention has been paid to the 32 open seats in the House. The table below shows where they are, which party won in 2004 and by how much, the current poll leader, who was elected in 2004, why the seat is vacant and who the candidates are now.

Of the 22 seats won by Republicans in 2004, the Democrat now leads in 9, the Republican leads in 6, 2 are ties and there is no data in 5. The Republicans are likely to win all 5 with no data, suggesting they may keep 11-13 of the 22, a loss of 9 to 11.

Of the 9 open Democratic seats, there is no data on 8 of them and the one with data shows the Democrat way ahead. They will probably keep all 9 of them.

The Vermont At Large seat being vacated by Independent Bernie Sanders will most likely be won by Democrat Peter Welch. Adding everything up, the current split of 9 Democrats, 22 Republicans, and 1 Independent is likely to become 19 Democrats, 11 Republicans and 2 seats too close to call, a Democratic pickup of 9-11. The Democrats need 15 pickups to take over the house. The open seats will probably supply 2/3 of these.

CD 2004 Poll Incumbent Why open? Democrat Republican
AZ-08 R 60% D +8% Jim Kolbe Retiring Gabrielle Giffords Randy Graf
CA-22 R 99%   Bill Thomas Retiring Sharon Beery Kevin McCarthy
CO-05 R 71% R +13% Joel Hefley Retiring Jaw Fawcett Doug Lamborn
CO-07 R 55% Tie Bob Beauprez Running for governor Ed Perlmutter Rick O'Donnell
FL-09 R 99% R +21% Mike Bilirakis Retiring Phyllis Busansky Gus Bilirakis
FL-11 D 86%   Jim Davis Running for governor Kathy Castor Eddie Adams
FL-13 R 55% D +3% Katherine Harris Running for senator Christine Jennings Vern Buchanan
FL-16 R 68% D +7% Mark Foley Resigned Tim Mahoney Joe Negron
GA-04 D 64%   Cynthia McKinney Lost primary Henry Johnson, Jr Catherine Davis
HI-02 D 63%   Ed Case Lost Senate primary Mazie Hirono Bob Hogue
IA-01 R 55% R +13% Jim Nussle Running for governor Bruce Braley Mike Whalen
ID-01 R 70% R +6% Butch Otter Running for governor Larry Grant Bill Sali
IL-06 R 56% Tie Henry Hyde Retiring Tammy Duckworth Peter Roskam
IL-17 D 61%   Lane Evans Retiring Phil Hare Andrea Zinga
MD-03 D 63%   Ben Cardin Running for senator John Sarbanes Gary Applebaum
MI-07 R 58%   Joe Schwarz Lost primary Sharon Renier Tim Walberg
MN-05 D 70%   Martin Sabo Retiring Keith Ellison Alan Fine
MN-06 R 54% D +5% Mark Kennedy Running for senator Patty Wetterling MIchele Bachmann
NE-03 R 88%   Tom Osborne Running for governor Scott Kleeb Adrian Smith
NV-02 R 67% R +3% Jim Gibbons Running for governor Jill Derby Dean Heller
NY-11 D 94%   Major Owens Retiring Yvette Clarke Stephen Finger
NY-24 R 57% D +11% Sherwood Boehlert Retiring Michael Arcuri Ray Meier
OH-04 R 59%   Michael Oxley Retiring Richard Siferd Jim Jordan
OH-06 D 100% D +32 Ted Strickland Running for governor Charlie Wilson Chuck Blasdel
OH-13 D 67% D +18% Sherrod Brown Running for senator Betty Sutton Craig Foltin
OH-18 R 66% D +9% Bob Ney Indicted Zack Space Joy Padgett
OK-05 R 66% R +29% Ernest Istook Running for governor David Hunter Mary Fallin
TN-01 R 74%   Bill Jenkins Retiring Rick Trent David Davis
TN-09 D 82%   Harold Ford Running for senator Steve Cohen Mark White
TX-22 R 55% D +8% Tom DeLay Indicted Nick Lampson Shelley Gibbs
VT-AL I 69% D +8% Bernie Sanders Running for senator Peter Welch Martha Rainville
WI-08 R 70% D +2% Mark Green Running for governor Steve Kagan John Gard

Projected New House*:     227 Democrats     206 Republicans     2 Ties
* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

Dem pickups: AZ-01 AZ-08 CT-04 FL-13 FL-16 IA-02 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 MN-06 NC-08 NC-11 NM-01 NY-19 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

GOP pickups: IN-07
Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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