New Senate: 51 Democrats 49 Republicans
News from the Votemaster
Let's take a look at how the pollsters did. Below is a table given the final vote in column 2, followed by the results of 8 pollsters. Each cell consists of the Democratic percentage minus the Repubican percentage. For example, in Arizona, the Democrat - Republican value is -9, meaning the Republican won by 9%. In California, the last poll from Mason-Dixon predicted a Democratic win by 30% (it was actually only 24%).
To see how well a pollster did, we can subtract the actual difference between the candidates from the predicted on. For example, in the table below, if we subtract Mason-Dixon's prediction for Arizona (-8) the actual vote total (-9) we get 1. In other words, Mason-Dixon predicted that the Democrat would do 1% better than he actually did. A perfect pollster would have a column consisting entirely of 0s. Since the margin of error in predicting each candidate's score is about 4%, the margin of error in predicting the difference is about 8%. Thus to a first approximation, any number less than or equal to 8 should be considered a correct prediction. Anything more than 8 is wrong.
I may not be able to get to the computer for a couple of days, but I will try to do this analysis for the House sooner or later.
Projected New House*: 230 Democrats 197 Republicans 8 TiesSee complete House polls.
Dem pickups: AZ-05 AZ-08 CA-11 CO-07 CT-05 FL-16 FL-22 IA-01 IA-02 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KS-02 KY-03 MN-01 NC-11 NH-01 NH-02 NY-19 NY-20 NY-24 OH-18 PA-04 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08
See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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-- The Votemaster