Projected New Senate: 49 Democrats 49 Republicans 2 ties

	Strong Dem (41)
	Weak Dem (6)
	Barely Dem (2)
	Exactly tied (2)
	Barely GOP (1)
	Weak GOP (1)
	Strong GOP (47)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Oct. 05	New polls:	CT FL MO OH
	Pickups:	Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee

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News from the Votemaster

Today is a good day for poll fans and Democrats. Lots of polls and most of them Democrat friendly. In the Senate race in Missouri, the closest in the country, Claire McCaskill (D) leads incumbent Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) 47% to 46%, which of course is a statistical tie.

In Ohio, Rep. Sherrod Brown has increased his lead over incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine 49% to 41%. Brown has led all year and it will take a miracle for DeWine to salvage his job, especially with the Democratic candidate for governor, Ted Strickland, leading Secretary of state Ken Blackwell by double digits.

In Connecticut, incumbent Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT), who is running as an independent, is ahead of Democrat Ned Lamont by 50% to 40%. This is a grudge match if ever there was one, but since both will join the Democratic caucus if elected, it has no relevance for control of the Senate.

Finally, in Florida, its all over but the shoutin' as incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson leads Katherine Harris 54% to 37%. Even Jeb Bush has stated that Nelson will win.

Over in the House we have 15 Zogby polls, with Democrats ahead in 11 and Republicans in 4:

AZ-08 Giffords (D) 45% Graf (R) 37%
CO-07 Perlmutter (D) 45% O Donnell (R) 34%
CT-02 Courtney (D) 41% Simmons (R) 44%
CT-04 Farrell (D) 46% Shays (R) 41%
IL-06 Duckworth (D) 43% Roskam (R) 38%
IN-02 Donnelly (D) 49% Chocola (R) 39%
IN-09 Hill (D) 46% Sodrel (R) 38%
IA-01 Braley (D) 34% Whalen (R) 47%
KY-04 Lucas (D) 36% Davis (R) 42%
MN-06 Wetterling (D) 43% Bachmann (R) 46%
NM-01 Madrid (D) 50% Wilson (R) 40%
NC-11 Shuler (D) 51% Taylor (R) 40%
OH-18 Space (D) 45% Padgett (R) 36%
PA-06 Murphy (D) 43% Gerlach (R) 41%
VA-02 Kellam (D) 46% Drake (R) 42%

Projected New House*: 217 Democrats 217 Republicans 1 Tie

* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

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-- The Votemaster