Projected New Senate: 48 Democrats 52 Republicans

	Strong Dem (41)
	Weak Dem (6)
	Barely Dem (1)
	Exactly tied (0)
	Barely GOP (3)
	Weak GOP (2)
	Strong GOP (47)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Oct. 01	New polls:	AZ CA FL NJ
	Pickups:	Montana New Jersey Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

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News from the Votemaster

We have four polls today--pretty good for a Sunday. The most important one is in New Jersey, where state senator Tom Kean, Jr. is ahead of incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) 42% to 39%. Menendez is being investigated on ethics charges and this is clearly hurting him. The poll showed that half the voters are aware of the ongoing investigation. Count on Tom Kean to inform the other half. This is the only state where the Democrats might lose a seat. If they lose New Jersey, they have little chance to recapture the Senate, so this is a key race to watch.

The other races confirm long-standing results. In Arizona, incumbent Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) leads Jim Pederson 49% to 38% (Arizona State Univ. poll). In California, an LA Times poll puts incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) ahead of Republican Dick Mountjoy 54% to 36%. Finally, in Florida, incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) is way ahead of Katherine Harris, 53% to 35%.

New Jersey isn't the only state plagued by scandals. In Florida, it is worse. The one in NJ is only about money. The FL-16 scandal is about sex and teenage boys. That keeps people's attention much longer. Although Rep. Mark Foley has resigned from Congress and dropped out the race for reelection, Florida law says his name must remain on the ballot, although votes cast for him go to his (as yet unnamed) replacement. Still, voters may be hesitant to actually mark the ballot for a sexual predator of young boys. Furthermore, it now turns out the Republican House leadership has known about this "problem" for at least 10 months and tried to hide it. See politics1.com for more on this story. It is likely to be with us for a while and FL-16 is suddenly competitive.

As usual, there is a new cartoon on the political humor page today

Projected New House*: 216 Democrats 219 Republicans

* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

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