Projected New Senate: 47 Democrats 52 Republicans 1 tie

	Strong Dem (42)
	Weak Dem (4)
	Barely Dem (1)
	Exactly tied (1)
	Barely GOP (5)
	Weak GOP (0)
	Strong GOP (47)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Aug. 31	New polls:	AZ WA
	Pickups:	New Jersey Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

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News from the Votemaster

Incumbent Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) is maintaining a large lead over real estate developer Jim Pederson. This is nothing new. He has had it for months.

Slightly more surprising is Sen. Maria Cantwell's amazingly large and sudden lead over insurance exec Mike McGavick in Washington. She is now ahead 53% to 36%, far more than in other recent polls. I don't believe it for a second.

Rasmussen had another national poll on the direction of the country. Only 27% say the country is on the right track, vs. 66% who think it is on the wrong track. Such numbers are bad news for incumbents, especially the party in the White House, which tends to get blamed for everything.

The fall of Sen. George "Macaca" Allen in only two weeks has been nothing short of amazing. Even Sen. Chuck Schumer (R-NY), chairman of the DSCC is convinced. Where he had previously written Virginia off as a lost cause, he is now pumping money into the campaign of Jim Webb, the former Reagan Secretary of the Navy turned Democrat who is opposing Allen. The significance of this move is pretty clear. Democrats have a decent chance of ousting incumbents in Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island (the big five) but they need one more to capture the Senate. Enter Virginia, stage right. Also, Schumer is keenly aware that if Allen is defeated, the GOP loses a potential presidential candidate in 2008.

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-- The Votemaster