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Projected New Senate:     48 Democrats     51 Republicans     1 tie

Polling data in Excel
Battleground states
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strong Dem Strong Dem (40)
weak Dem Weak Dem (6)
barely Dem Barely Dem (2)
tied Exactly tied (1)
barely GOP Barely GOP (5)
weak GOP Weak GOP (0)
strong GOP Strong GOP (46)
No Senate race No Senate race
  Map algorithm explained
  Pickups: Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

News from the Votemaster

Lots of new polls today as Zogby has released his August batch of the battleground states Here are the results:

State Democrat Republican
Arizona 44 48
Connecticut 39 49
Florida 52 39
Michigan 49 45
Minnesota 50 42
Missouri 45 50
New Jersey 43 41
New Mexico 59 31
Nevada 45 48
New York 55 34
Ohio 47 39
Pennsylvania 51 42
Tennessee 44 48
Texas 55 37
Virginia 48 47
Washington 51 43
Wisconsin 51 33

Some good news for both parties--in different ways. For the Republicans, they are still ahead overall. That's what counts. Also important is that Jim Talent is pulling ahead of Claire McCaskill in Missouri, one of the tightest races in the country. Without Missouri, it is hard to concoct any scenario in which the Democrats retake the Senate.

On the other hand, there is also good news for the Democrats. The biggest news is that former Reagan Navy Secretary turned Democrat Jim Webb is now ahead of incumbent Sen. George "Macaca" Allen (R-VA) for the first time in any poll this year. While Allen has apologized many times, support in the African-American community for Webb, no liberal by any means, is solidifying. Losing this race would not only cost the Republicans a key Senate seat, but it would mean eliminating one of their top contenders for President in 2008.

Also encouraging for the Dems is Nevada, where Jack Carter has pulled to within 3% of incumbent Jon Ensign (R-NV). Furthermore, Rep. Harold Ford is within shooting distance of former Chattanooga mayor, Bob Corker in Tennessee. Virginia, Nevada, and Tennessee are not on the media's radar (yet), but watch them closely. The Democrats have to win at least one of them to be able to capture the Senate.

For the record, Zogby didn't release a poll in Montana, and the Maryland poll showing Ben Cardin ahead of Michael Steele by 9% is iffy since Cardin hasn't been nominated yet.

And as usual, note the that map reflects an average of a week's polls, so Virginia hasn't turned blue yet due to previous polls where Allen was ahead. Click on "Map algorithm explained" for the formula used.

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-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com

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