Projected New Senate: 48 Democrats 51 Republicans 1 tie

	Strong Dem (40)
	Weak Dem (6)
	Barely Dem (2)
	Exactly tied (1)
	Barely GOP (5)
	Weak GOP (0)
	Strong GOP (46)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Aug. 28	New polls:	AZ CT FL MI MN MO NJ NM NV NY OH PA TN TX VA WA WI
	Pickups:	Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

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News from the Votemaster

Lots of new polls today as Zogby has released his August batch of the battleground states Here are the results:

State	Democrat	Republican
Arizona	44	48
Connecticut	39	49
Florida	52	39
Michigan	49	45
Minnesota	50	42
Missouri	45	50
New Jersey	43	41
New Mexico	59	31
Nevada	45	48
New York	55	34
Ohio	47	39
Pennsylvania	51	42
Tennessee	44	48
Texas	55	37
Virginia	48	47
Washington	51	43
Wisconsin	51	33

Some good news for both parties--in different ways. For the Republicans, they are still ahead overall. That's what counts. Also important is that Jim Talent is pulling ahead of Claire McCaskill in Missouri, one of the tightest races in the country. Without Missouri, it is hard to concoct any scenario in which the Democrats retake the Senate.

On the other hand, there is also good news for the Democrats. The biggest news is that former Reagan Navy Secretary turned Democrat Jim Webb is now ahead of incumbent Sen. George "Macaca" Allen (R-VA) for the first time in any poll this year. While Allen has apologized many times, support in the African-American community for Webb, no liberal by any means, is solidifying. Losing this race would not only cost the Republicans a key Senate seat, but it would mean eliminating one of their top contenders for President in 2008.

Also encouraging for the Dems is Nevada, where Jack Carter has pulled to within 3% of incumbent Jon Ensign (R-NV). Furthermore, Rep. Harold Ford is within shooting distance of former Chattanooga mayor, Bob Corker in Tennessee. Virginia, Nevada, and Tennessee are not on the media's radar (yet), but watch them closely. The Democrats have to win at least one of them to be able to capture the Senate.

For the record, Zogby didn't release a poll in Montana, and the Maryland poll showing Ben Cardin ahead of Michael Steele by 9% is iffy since Cardin hasn't been nominated yet.

And as usual, note the that map reflects an average of a week's polls, so Virginia hasn't turned blue yet due to previous polls where Allen was ahead. Click on "Map algorithm explained" for the formula used.

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-- The Votemaster