Projected New Senate: 48 Democrats 50 Republicans 2 ties
News from the Votemaster
The Connecticut primary, part II, has tightened a bit, with Lieberman's lead over Lamont only 2% now, 44% to 42% (ARG) or 45% to 43% (Rasmussen). Schlesinger/Gold is at 3% and 6% in these polls, respectively. This is about as safe as Democratic states go. The only state that is safer for either party is Indiana, where Dick Lugar (R-IN) is running unopposed.
In Michigan, incumbent Debbie Stabenow is maintaining her comfortable of 9% lead over Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, 42% to 51%.
In other polling action a New York Times poll released yesterday shows that 47% of the country want the Congress to be controlled by the Democrats and only 32% want it controlled by the Republicans. Bush's approval is at 36% and his approval is at 57%. In theory, these numbers spell disaster for the Republicans, but practice is often different from theory. For decades, there have been studies showing that even though people hate party X they continue to vote for senators and congresspersons from party X because they like the candidate. Richard Nixon was once informed about some atrocity or other the then-Shah of Iran had committed, accompanied by the remark "He's a real bastard." Nixon replied: "Yeah, but he's OUR bastard." What the Democrats have to do this Fall is tell the voters: "While your senator may be a nice person and capable of bringing home the bacon, having the Republicans in charge of the Senate has been a disaster for the country so vote for change." Conversely, the Republicans' message has to be: "Your senator has done an excellent job representing you so there is no reason to fire him." If the election goes national, the Democrats win; if it stays local, the Republicans win.
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-- The Votemaster