One State Two State, Red State Blue State
Many people think that the states on the East Coast, West Coast, and Upper Midwest are blue and the rest are red. That mental model is really not very accurate. While it holds for presidential elections, it does not hold nearly as well for governor, senator, and house delegations. As a simple example, the six states that went most heavily for Kerry in 2004, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, New York, Maryland and Hawaii, all have Republican governors. Conversely, of the 31 states Bush carried, 12 have Democratic governors, including Wyoming, which Bush carried by 40%. The Senate shows a similar pattern, with fully a quarter of the senators coming from the "wrong" party (Democratic senators in red states and Republican senators in blue states). The conclusion is that you shouldn't judge how a Senate race will go based on how the state went in the presidential election.
The chart below lists all the states in order of how Democratic they are, Massachusetts being the most Democratic (Kerry carried it by 25%) and Utah being the least Democratic (Bush carried it by 46%). The names of the states Kerry carried are in blue cells; the Bush states are in red cells. The next three columns show the percentage of the vote that went to Kerry, to Bush, and the difference. The governors, senators, and House delegations that are "wrong" (don't match the presidential vote) are shown in blue or red, with ties in gray.
The raw data is available in .csv format for Excel.
| State |
K |
B |
Dif |
Governor |
Senior senator |
Junior senator |
House (D) (R) |
|
| Massachusetts | 62 | 37 | 25 | Mitt Romney (R) | Ted Kennedy (D) | John Kerry (D) | 10 | 0 |
| Rhode Island | 60 | 39 | 21 | Don Carcieri (R) | Jack Reed (D) | Lincoln Chafee (R) | 2 | 0 |
| Vermont | 59 | 39 | 20 | James H. Douglas (R) | Patrick Leahy (D) | Jim Jeffords (I) | 1 | 0 |
| New York | 58 | 40 | 18 | George E. Pataki (R) | Chuck Schumer (D) | Hillary Clinton (D) | 20 | 9 |
| Maryland | 56 | 43 | 13 | Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. (R) | Paul Sarbanes (D) | Barbara Mikulski (D) | 6 | 2 |
| Hawaii | 55 | 44 | 11 | Linda Lingle (R) | Daniel Inouye (D) | Daniel Akaka (D) | 2 | 0 |
| Illinois | 55 | 44 | 11 | Rod R. Blagojevich (D) | Richard Durbin (D) | Barack Obama (D) | 10 | 9 |
| Connecticut | 54 | 44 | 10 | M. Jodi Rell (R) | Chris Dodd (D) | Joe Lieberman (D) | 2 | 3 |
| California | 54 | 45 | 9 | Arnie Schwarzenegger(R) | Dianne Feinstein (D) | Barbara Boxer (D) | 33 | 20 |
| Maine | 53 | 45 | 8 | John Baldacci (D) | Olympia Snowe (R) | Susan Collins (R) | 2 | 0 |
| Delaware | 53 | 46 | 7 | Ruth Ann Minner (D) | Joseph Biden (D) | Tom Carper (D) | 0 | 1 |
| New Jersey | 53 | 46 | 7 | Jon Corzine (D) | Jon Corzine (D) | Frank Lautenberg (D) | 7 | 6 |
| Washington | 53 | 46 | 7 | Christine Gregoire (D) | Patty Murray (D) | Maria Cantwell (D) | 6 | 3 |
| Oregon | 53 | 47 | 6 | Ted Kulongoski (D) | Ron Wyden (D) | Gordon Smith (R) | 4 | 1 |
| Minnesota | 52 | 47 | 5 | Tim Pawlenty (R) | Mark Dayton (D) | Norm Coleman (R) | 4 | 4 |
| Michigan | 51 | 48 | 3 | Jennifer Granholm (D) | Carl Levin (D) | Debbie Stabenow (D) | 6 | 9 |
| Pennsylvania | 51 | 49 | 2 | Ed Rendell (D) | Arlen Specter (R) | Rick Santorum (R) | 7 | 12 |
| New Hampshire | 50 | 49 | 1 | John Lynch (D) | Judd Gregg (R) | John Sununu (R) | 0 | 2 |
| Wisconsin | 50 | 49 | 1 | Jim Doyle (D) | Herb Kohl (D) | Russell Feingold (D) | 4 | 4 |
| Iowa | 49 | 50 | -1 | Tom Vilsack (D) | Chuck Grassley (R) | Tom Harkin (D) | 1 | 4 |
| New Mexico | 49 | 50 | -1 | Bill Richardson (D) | Pete Domenici (R) | Jeff Bingaman (D) | 1 | 2 |
| Ohio | 49 | 51 | -2 | Bob Taft (R) | Mike DeWine (R) | George Voinovich (R) | 6 | 12 |
| Nevada | 48 | 51 | -3 | Kenny Guinn (R) | Harry Reid (D) | John Ensign (R) | 1 | 2 |
| Florida | 47 | 52 | -5 | Jeb Bush (R) | Bill Nelson (D) | Mel Martinez (R) | 7 | 18 |
| Colorado | 46 | 53 | -7 | Bill Owens (R) | Wayne Allard (R) | Ken Salazar (D) | 3 | 4 |
| Missouri | 46 | 54 | -8 | Matt Blunt (R) | Kit Bond (R) | Jim Talent (R) | 4 | 5 |
| Virginia | 46 | 54 | -8 | Tim Kaine (D) | John Warner (R) | George Allen (R) | 3 | 8 |
| Arkansas | 45 | 54 | -9 | Mike Huckabee (R) | Blanche Lincoln (D) | Mark Pryor (D) | 3 | 1 |
| Arizona | 44 | 55 | -11 | Janet Napolitano (D) | John McCain (R) | Jon Kyl (R) | 2 | 6 |
| West Virginia | 43 | 56 | -13 | Joe Manchin III (D) | Robert Byrd (D) | Jay Rockefeller (D) | 2 | 1 |
| North Carolina | 43 | 57 | -14 | Mike F. Easley (D) | Elizabeth Dole (R) | Richard Burr (R) | 6 | 7 |
| Tennessee | 43 | 57 | -14 | Phil Bredesen (D) | Bill Frist (R) | Lamar Alexander (R) | 5 | 4 |
| Louisiana | 42 | 57 | -15 | Kathleen Blanco (D) | Mary Landrieu (D) | David Vitter (R) | 2 | 5 |
| South Carolina | 41 | 58 | -17 | Mark Sanford (R) | Lindsey Graham (R) | Jim DeMint (R) | 2 | 4 |
| Georgia | 41 | 59 | -18 | Sonny Perdue (R) | Saxby Chambliss (R) | Johnny Isakson (R) | 6 | 7 |
| Kentucky | 40 | 60 | -20 | Ernie Fletcher (R) | Mitch McConnell (R) | Jim Bunning (R) | 1 | 5 |
| Mississippi | 40 | 60 | -20 | Haley Barbour (R) | Thad Cochran (R) | Trent Lott (R) | 2 | 2 |
| Montana | 39 | 59 | -20 | Brian Schweitzer (D) | Max Baucus (D) | Conrad Burns (R) | 0 | 1 |
| Indiana | 39 | 60 | -21 | Mitchell Daniels (R) | Dick Lugar (R) | Evan Bayh (D) | 2 | 7 |
| South Dakota | 38 | 61 | -23 | Mike Rounds (R) | Tim Johnson (D) | John Thune (R) | 1 | 0 |
| Texas | 38 | 61 | -23 | Rick Perry (R) | Kay Hutchison (R) | John Cornyn (R) | 11 | 21 |
| Alabama | 37 | 63 | -26 | Robert Riley (R) | Richard Shelby (R) | Jeff Sessions (R) | 2 | 5 |
| Kansas | 36 | 63 | -27 | Kathleen Sebelius (D) | Sam Brownback (R) | Pat Roberts (R) | 1 | 3 |
| North Dakota | 36 | 63 | -27 | John Hoeven (R) | Kent Conrad (D) | Byron Dorgan (D) | 1 | 0 |
| Alaska | 34 | 62 | -28 | Frank H. Murkowski (R) | Ted Stevens (R) | Lisa Murkowski (R) | 0 | 1 |
| Oklahoma | 34 | 66 | -32 | Brad Henry (D) | James Inhofe (R) | Tom Coburn (R) | 1 | 4 |
| Nebraska | 32 | 67 | -35 | David Heineman (R) | Chuck Hagel (R) | Ben Nelson (D) | 0 | 3 |
| Idaho | 29 | 69 | -40 | Jim Risch (R) | Larry Craig (R) | Michael Crapo (R) | 0 | 2 |
| Wyoming | 29 | 69 | -40 | Dave Freudenthal (D) | Craig Thomas (R) | Michael Enzi (R) | 0 | 1 |
| Utah | 26 | 72 | -46 | Jon Huntsman (R) | Orrin Hatch (R) | Robert Bennett (R) | 1 | 2 |
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