State-by-State Margins Sept. 30


The numbers in the table tell who is leading and by how much. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the lead will be shown as 3%. When this lead is 5% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C.* 67%
Massachusetts 37%
New York 20%
Rhode Island 18%
Connecticut 15%
California 13%
Vermont 10%
Hawaii 10%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Illinois 9%
Oregon 7%
Delaware* 7%
Michigan 6%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Ohio 3%
Maryland 3%
Minnesota 2%
Washington 1%
Pennsylvania 1%
New Jersey 1%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 37%
Wyoming* 36%
Nebraska* 31%
North Dakota* 29%
Idaho 29%
Alaska 27%
Georgia 25%
Oklahoma 23%
Kansas 22%
Texas 21%
South Dakota 19%
Montana 18%
Alabama 16%
Kentucky 15%
Indiana 15%
Tennessee 14%
Arizona 11%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
West Virginia 9%
South Carolina 9%
North Carolina 9%
Mississippi 9%
Louisiana 8%
Colorado 8%
Wisconsin 7%
Arkansas 7%
Virginia 6%
Florida 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
New Mexico 4%
Missouri 4%
Iowa 3%
Nevada 2%
Maine 1%
States that are exactly tied: New Hampshire
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