State-by-State Margins Sept. 12


The numbers in the table tell who is leading and by how much. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the lead will be shown as 3%. When this lead is 5% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C.* 77%
Massachusetts 26%
Rhode Island 24%
New York 19%
Vermont 15%
Illinois 14%
Delaware* 13%
Maryland 11%
New Mexico 10%
California 10%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Washington 8%
Hawaii 7%
Connecticut 7%
Minnesota 6%
Oregon 5%
New Hampshire 5%
Maine 5%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
New Jersey 4%
Iowa 4%
Michigan 3%
Wisconsin 2%
Pennsylvania 2%
Colorado 1%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Wyoming* 40%
Utah 40%
Mississippi 31%
Idaho 30%
Nebraska* 29%
North Dakota* 28%
Kansas 25%
Texas 24%
Indiana 24%
Alaska 23%
Montana 20%
Alabama 20%
Oklahoma 19%
Louisiana 17%
Kentucky 17%
Georgia 17%
Arizona 16%
South Dakota 13%
South Carolina 12%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
West Virginia 9%
Tennessee 9%
Barely Bush (<5%)
North Carolina 4%
Virginia 3%
Ohio 3%
Missouri 2%
Arkansas 2%
States that are exactly tied: Florida Nevada

* No state polls have been conducted in DC, DE, ND, NE, and WY, so the 2000 results are used. DC and DE are solid Democratic; the rest are solid Republican.

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