State-by-State Margins Sept. 7


The numbers in the table tell who is leading and by how much. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the lead will be shown as 3%. When this lead is 5% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C.* 77%
Massachusetts 26%
Rhode Island 24%
New York 19%
Vermont 15%
Illinois 14%
Delaware* 13%
Oregon 11%
Maryland 11%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
New Hampshire 8%
California 8%
Hawaii 7%
Connecticut 7%
Washington 5%
Maine 5%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Wisconsin 4%
New Jersey 4%
Michigan 4%
Tennessee 2%
Nevada 2%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 45%
Wyoming* 40%
Mississippi 31%
Idaho 30%
Nebraska* 29%
North Dakota* 28%
Texas 24%
Alaska 23%
Montana 20%
Kansas 20%
Alabama 20%
Oklahoma 19%
Kentucky 17%
Georgia 17%
Louisiana 16%
South Dakota 14%
Indiana 12%
South Carolina 11%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
West Virginia 7%
Ohio 6%
North Carolina 6%
Barely Bush (<5%)
Virginia 4%
Missouri 4%
Florida 4%
New Mexico 3%
Arizona 3%
Pennsylvania 1%
Arkansas 1%
States that are exactly tied: Colorado Iowa Minnesota

* No state polls have been conducted in DC, DE, ND, NE, and WY, so the 2000 results are used. DC and DE are solid Democratic; the rest are solid Republican.

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