State-by-State Margins Oct. 19
The numbers in the table tell who is leading and by how much.
For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the lead will be shown as 3%.
When this lead is 5% or less, the race is essentially a tie.
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Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C. 67%
New York 23%
Rhode Island 20%
Illinois 16%
Maryland 15%
Massachusetts 14%
Vermont 13%
New Jersey 13%
Hawaii 10%
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Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Connecticut 9%
Michigan 8%
California 8%
Washington 7%
Delaware 7%
Pennsylvania 6%
Oregon 5%
New Hampshire 5%
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Barely Kerry (<5%)
Minnesota 2%
Maine 2%
Wisconsin 1%
Nevada 1%
Florida 1%
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Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 37%
Wyoming 36%
Nebraska 31%
Oklahoma 30%
North Dakota 29%
Idaho 29%
Alaska 27%
Alabama 24%
Texas 23%
Montana 21%
Kentucky 19%
Kansas 19%
South Carolina 13%
Indiana 13%
Tennessee 11%
South Dakota 10%
Georgia 10%
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Weak Bush (5-9%)
Mississippi 9%
Louisiana 8%
West Virginia 6%
Colorado 6%
Arkansas 5%
Arizona 5%
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Barely Bush (<5%)
Virginia 3%
North Carolina 3%
Ohio 2%
Missouri 2%
New Mexico 1%
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States that are exactly tied:
Iowa
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