State-by-State Margins Oct. 12


The numbers in the table tell who is leading and by how much. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the lead will be shown as 3%. When this lead is 5% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C. 67%
Rhode Island 18%
Illinois 16%
Maryland 15%
Massachusetts 14%
New York 12%
Vermont 10%
Oregon 10%
Hawaii 10%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Connecticut 9%
California 8%
New Jersey 7%
Delaware 7%
Washington 5%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Michigan 4%
Pennsylvania 2%
Minnesota 2%
Maine 2%
Wisconsin 1%
Nevada 1%
Iowa 1%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 37%
Wyoming 36%
Nebraska 31%
Oklahoma 30%
North Dakota 29%
Idaho 29%
Alabama 28%
Alaska 27%
Kansas 22%
Texas 21%
Tennessee 19%
Kentucky 19%
Indiana 19%
Georgia 19%
Montana 18%
Arizona 14%
South Dakota 12%
South Carolina 11%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
Mississippi 9%
Arkansas 9%
Louisiana 8%
Colorado 8%
North Carolina 7%
West Virginia 6%
Ohio 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
Florida 4%
Virginia 3%
Missouri 2%
New Mexico 1%
States that are exactly tied: New Hampshire
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