State-by-State Margins Oct. 6


The numbers in the table tell who is leading and by how much. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the lead will be shown as 3%. When this lead is 5% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C.* 67%
Massachusetts 37%
Rhode Island 18%
Illinois 17%
New York 12%
Washington 11%
Vermont 10%
Hawaii 10%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Connecticut 9%
California 8%
Delaware* 7%
New Jersey 5%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
New Mexico 3%
Minnesota 3%
Maryland 3%
Maine 3%
Oregon 2%
Ohio 1%
Iowa 1%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 37%
Wyoming* 36%
Nebraska* 31%
Oklahoma 30%
North Dakota* 29%
Idaho 29%
Indiana 28%
Alabama 28%
South Carolina 27%
Alaska 27%
Georgia 25%
Kansas 22%
Texas 21%
Montana 18%
Kentucky 15%
South Dakota 12%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
West Virginia 9%
Mississippi 9%
Arkansas 9%
Arizona 9%
Louisiana 8%
Wisconsin 7%
North Carolina 7%
Virginia 6%
Tennessee 6%
Florida 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
Nevada 4%
Colorado 4%
Missouri 2%
Pennsylvania 1%
States that are exactly tied: Michigan New Hampshire
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