State-by-State Margins Nov. 2


The numbers in the table tell who is leading and by how much. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the lead will be shown as 3%. When this lead is 5% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C. 67%
New York 18%
Massachusetts 14%
Vermont 13%
Rhode Island 13%
Maryland 11%
California 11%
Illinois 10%
Connecticut 10%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Maine 8%
Delaware 7%
Oregon 6%
Minnesota 6%
Michigan 6%
Washington 5%
Florida 5%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
New Mexico 3%
Iowa 3%
Pennsylvania 1%
New Hampshire 1%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 45%
Wyoming 36%
Oklahoma 30%
Nebraska 29%
Idaho 29%
Alaska 27%
Louisiana 26%
Kansas 23%
Texas 22%
South Dakota 22%
Montana 21%
Kentucky 21%
North Dakota 20%
Indiana 19%
Tennessee 18%
Alabama 18%
Arizona 15%
Georgia 14%
South Carolina 11%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
Mississippi 9%
West Virginia 8%
North Carolina 8%
Nevada 8%
Missouri 5%
Arkansas 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
Virginia 4%
Wisconsin 3%
Ohio 3%
Colorado 3%
Hawaii 1%
States that are exactly tied: New Jersey
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