Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 290 Bush 237
|
|
| July 26 | New polls: FL MO OH |
| Welcome | Electoral college | FAQ |
| Americans abroad | Foreign nationals | President Bush's record |
| Political websites | Political humor | Other good stuff |
| Historical trend | Enhancements | Election 2000 |
News from the Votemaster
Good news for George Bush in the two most important states. A new Gallup poll puts him ahead 50% to 46% in Florida, with Nader at 1%. A new Columbus Dispatch poll puts him ahead in Ohio as well, by 44% to 47%, with Nader at 2%. Finally, a Gallup poll in Missouri has Bush and Kerry tied, but a Survey USA poll we already reported for the same time period as the Gallup poll has Kerry ahead by 2%, so we have averaged the two.
Despite being ahead in Florida and Ohio, Bush is still behind in the electoral college, largely due to the Midwest. Today's survey can be regarded as the benchmark against which the convention bounce can be measured.
The final converted versions of the spreadsheets are still not available. Probably tomorrow.
The AP ran a story Sunday saying that Bush is ahead in the electoral college. They claim that they following states are tossups: New Mexico, Wisconsin, West Virginia. In a generic sense they are, but the most recent polls in these states are as follows:
| State | Kerry | Bush | Poll |
| New Mexico | 49 | 42 | Zogby (July 10) |
| Wisconsin | 48 | 42 | American Research Group (July 15) |
| West Virginia | 43 | 51 | Zogby (July 15) |
These leads are well outside the MoE. For the moment, Kerry is ahead in New Mexico and Wisconsin and Bush is ahead in West Virginia.
The story also says Arizona and Missouri are leaning towards Bush. Not according to the data. Here it is
| State | Kerry | Bush | Poll |
| Arizona | 42 | 41 | Arizona State Univ. (July 18) |
| Missouri | 48 | 45 | Research 2000 (July 22) |
| Missouri | 47 | 47 | Gallup (July 22) |
The data say these states are statistical ties. They are not leaning towards Bush at the moment.
It is certainly true that about 20 states are going to be very close, but there is no basis for saying that Bush is ahead in the electoral college now. A more accurate statement would be Kerry has 222 electoral votes strongly for him or leaning in his direction and Bush has 184 strong or leaning. The rest are tossups. Thus Kerry is ahead in the electoral college right now. But don't bet on it. AP should assign a more experienced political reporter to this kind of story next time.
To get the dates and sources for the polling data, click on the Excel spreadsheet at the top right. To bookmark this page, type CTRL-D. To help publicize this website, please link to it to improve its Google PageRank and tell your friends about it.
-- The votemaster Electoral college
