State-by-State Margins July 20


The numbers in the table below give the margins between the candidates. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the margin will be shown as 3%. The margin of error in most polls is about 3%, so when the margin is 3% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C.* 80%
Massachusetts 29%
Rhode Island 22%
New York 22%
Hawaii* 19%
Connecticut 18%
Illinois 16%
Vermont 15%
Maryland 14%
Delaware* 13%
Oregon 10%
New Jersey 10%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Washington 9%
New Hampshire 9%
California 8%
Pennsylvania 7%
New Mexico 7%
Wisconsin 6%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Iowa 4%
Missouri 3%
Florida 3%
Minnesota 2%
Michigan 2%
Ohio 1%
Maine 1%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 45%
Wyoming* 40%
Mississippi 31%
Idaho 30%
Nebraska* 29%
North Dakota* 28%
Oklahoma 24%
Alaska 23%
Montana 20%
Kansas 20%
Indiana 19%
Texas 18%
South Dakota 16%
Alabama 14%
Kentucky 13%
Arizona 12%
Georgia 11%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
West Virginia 8%
South Carolina 7%
Louisiana 6%
Virginia 5%
North Carolina 5%
Colorado 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
Nevada 2%
Arkansas 2%
States that are exactly tied: Tennessee

* No state polls have been conducted in DC, DE, HI, ND, NE, and WY, so the 2000 results are used. DC, DL, and HI are solid Democratic; the rest are solid Republican.

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