State-by-State Margins Aug. 1


The numbers in the table below give the margins between the candidates. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the margin will be shown as 3%. The margin of error in most polls is about 3%, so when the margin is 3% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C.* 80%
Massachusetts 29%
Rhode Island 22%
New York 22%
Hawaii* 19%
Connecticut 18%
Illinois 16%
Vermont 15%
Maryland 14%
Delaware* 13%
California 11%
New Mexico 10%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Oregon 9%
Michigan 9%
Washington 8%
Pennsylvania 7%
New Hampshire 5%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Wisconsin 4%
West Virginia 3%
Tennessee 2%
New Jersey 1%
Nevada 1%
Missouri 1%
Maine 1%
Arizona 1%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 45%
Wyoming* 40%
Mississippi 31%
Idaho 30%
Nebraska* 29%
North Dakota* 28%
Oklahoma 24%
Alaska 23%
Alabama 22%
Montana 20%
Kansas 20%
Indiana 19%
Texas 18%
South Dakota 16%
Louisiana 16%
Georgia 13%
Kentucky 10%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
South Carolina 7%
North Carolina 7%
Virginia 5%
Colorado 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
Arkansas 2%
Ohio 1%
Florida 1%
States that are exactly tied: Iowa Minnesota

* No state polls have been conducted in DC, DE, HI, ND, NE, and WY, so the 2000 results are used. DC, DE, and HI are solid Democratic; the rest are solid Republican.

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