Oops. When we complete a post each day, there is one final step that converts it from "draft that only we can see" to "publicly available." Yesterday, as irony would have it, we finished the post so early that the final step got fumbled, and so the post went live quite late (something like 8 hours after it was finished). It did get posted, though!

The Nominations Are Coming Fast and Furious

Donald Trump is moving quickly filling cabinet and other top-level positions. Here is the current list of key top nominations that Trump has announced so far:

Position	Nominee	Background
Sec. of State	Marco Rubio	U.S. Senator, member of Foreign Relations Committee, China hawk
Sec. of Defense	Pete Hegseth	Totally unqualified Fox News host who has never even run a lemonade stand
Sec. of HHS	Robert Kennedy Jr.	Pro-choice vaccine skeptic, leading purveyor of conspiracy theories
Sec. of Homeland Security	Kristi Noem	Far-right SD governor who knows zip about DHS, used to be in Congress
Sec. of Interior	Doug Burgum	Competent governor of ND who favors domestic oil production
Sec. of Energy	Chris Wright	CEO of an energy company that specializes in fracking
Sec. of Veterans Affairs	Doug Collins	Former Georgia representative who consistently defended Trump in the House
Attorney General	Matt Gaetz	Former representative, bomb thrower, allegedly violated sex trafficking laws
Deputy AG	Todd Blanche	Trump's lawyer in the hush-money case he lost, once worked for SDNY
EPA administrator	Lee Zeldin	Former congressman who opposes everything the EPA is supposed to do
Director of National Intel.	Tulsi Gabbard	Not only unqualified for job, but very possibly a Russian asset
CIA director	John Ratcliffe	Abrasive but competent former Director of National Intelligence
U.N. ambassador	Elise Stefanik	#4 House Republican, #1 House opportunist who has no principles at all
NSA	Michael Waltz	Florida congressman, China hawk who opposes helping Ukraine
FCC Chair	Brendan Carr	Partisan hack, wrote the "FCC" chapter in Project 2025
White House Counsel	William McGinley	Former White House official, worked for RNC on "election integrity"
Solicitor General	Dean Sauer	Clerk to J. Michael Luttig, defended pedophile priests, Missouri solicitor general
Border czar	Tom Homan	Former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, border hardliner

Nearly all of the above appointments require Senate confirmation. A surprising number of the above nominees are veep rejects, including Burgum, Gabbard, Noem, Rubio and Stefanik. In a way, getting a real job is actually an improvement over being veep for a president who wants to do everything himself and then blame the VP when it goes wrong. At this rate, by Jan. 20, the whole Cabinet is likely to be nominated and some of the nominees approved.

That is not to say confirmation will be easy. Quite a few of Trump's picks are very controversial. There is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that if confirmation votes were secret, at least half a dozen of the above nominees would fail. But the votes are not secret.

One of the picks that was already controversial has just gotten worse. Pete Hegseth, weekend host at Fox, did serve in the Army once, but that is hardly a qualification for being Secretary of Defense. Now it has come out that in 2017, Hegseth was accused of sexual assault after speaking at a Republican women's event in Monterey, CA. No charges were filed, but Hegseth paid the woman an undisclosed sum of money to keep quiet about it. Hegseth said the encounter was consensual and besides, the woman was the aggressor. This story is not going to increase the chances of the nine Republican women in the Senate voting for his confirmation.

And while we are on the subject of sex scandals, one unnamed woman told the House Ethics Committee that she witnessed AG-designate Matt Gaetz having sex with a minor at a party in Florida. Senate Democrats and Republicans have demanded that the House Ethics Committee turn over its report to them before they vote on Gaetz' confirmation. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has refused to release the report. Gaetz resigned from the House to kill the investigation, but if the Senate votes him down, he can simply be sworn in as a new House member in January since he was reelected on Nov. 5. At worst, it will cost him a bit of seniority.

One person who could play a big role in confirmation battles is outgoing Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). He is the ultimate institutionalist, is probably not going to run for reelection in 2026 and his wife, Elaine Chao, is very wealthy, so he could probably oppose some of Trump's nominations and not be pressured into changing his mind. McConnell cares deeply about foreign policy and national security and if he thinks nominees in that sector are incompetent, he might come out against them in public, which could sink them because other Republican senators respect their longtime leader. He could be like Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who is officially a backbencher now, but probably the most powerful backbencher in history.

Additionally, Trump has also chosen several people who will work closely with him but who do not need Senate confirmation, including his chief of staff and her deputy, the communications director, press secretary, etc. Then there is the DOGE (pronounced "doggie" ?), run by two guys with elephant-size egos, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. (V)

Republicans Won The House But The Margin Is Not Certain Yet

Republicans are sure of at least 218 House seats and Democrats are sure of at least 213 seats in the 119th Congress, so the Republicans will have the majority again in January. However, four districts have still not been called. Here they are:

District	Democrat	Dem. votes	Republican	Rep. votes	Difference	Votes remaining
AK-AL	Mary Peltola*	143,370	Nick Begich	152,545	9,175	ca. 20,000
CA-45	Derek Tran	152,981	Michelle Steel*	152,945	36	ca. 33,000
IA-01	Christina Bohannan	206,139	Mariannette Miller-Meeks*	206,940	801	ca. 1,000
OH-09	Marcy Kaptur*	176,228	Derek Merrin	175,035	1,193	ca. 22,000

Incumbents are marked with an asterisk. The Republican majority in the House is certain. It could be as much as nine if they win all the undecided seats, or as small as one if they lose them all. If the Republicans win the races they are now leading, the House will be 220-215, a very small margin to work with. It should be noted that Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) is in deep trouble because about 12,000 of the "uncounted" votes are the second-place votes of the Libertarian candidate, and they will probably skew Republican. Recounts are likely in all the races. No matter what the final results are, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will be tested to the limit herding the cats. (V)

Is Trump Following God's Playbook?

Donald Trump has announced some nominations that are way beyond weird. Matt Gaetz, Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and Robert Kennedy Jr. come to mind. What is he up to? Maybe Trump opened the King Donald version of the Bible printed in China and found this story. There was this guy Abraham and he had a nice son, Isaac. God told Abraham to kill the kid. Abraham didn't like the idea so much, but when God gives you a direct order, you have to do it, or else. So Abraham found himself a knife and was about to do it when God shouted: "Stop! I just wanted to see if you put obedience to me above love, sanity and everything else. Here's a sheep you can use instead. I love roast mutton very much."

Could it be that Donald threw out names that he knew would be unacceptable to even loyal Trumpers in the Senate to try to intimidate them and discover who would put loyalty to him above everything else and vote for confirmation? Kind of like God testing Abraham? Was the whole exercise a gigantic power play to make it clear to everyone that he alone was running the show and that everyone else had better kowtow, no matter how horrible the marching orders are, or else?

Of course, such a play carries some risk. The Senate could call his bluff and reject his candidates. Then he would look like a loser and the Senate would gain the upper hand. But everyone in the commercial real estate business always takes risks. You build a big office/condo building and hope you can rent enough/sell enough to make it pay off. It might or might not work. You don't know in advance.

Continuing with this theme, Trump has threatened the Senate with bypassing them and appointing his Cabinet and other officials using a recess appointment. When the Constitution was written, Congress was not in session most of the year, and if an emergency occurred, it could take days or even weeks (especially in the winter, with impassable roads) to get all the members together. If an important official died and had to be replaced quickly, the founders decided to give the president emergency power to make appointments during a recess. This was never meant to be a workaround to get appointments approved without Senate consent, but was more a break-glass-in-case-of-an-emergency provision.

In 2012, when the Senate was off for 3 days, Barack Obama said it was a recess and he made some appointments. Republicans sued and the Supreme Court ruled that 3 days was too short to be considered a "recess." It was more like a long weekend. The ruling said that a break had to be at least 10 days for it to be considered a recess and thus activate the president's power to make recess appointments. Since then, the Senate almost never recesses when the opposite party controls the White House. Instead, every day or two, one member of the Senate is authorized to go to the empty chamber and gavel the empty Senate into session. Then the acting chair asks the empty chamber: "Does any member have any business for the Senate?" The chair then waits 5 seconds for the empty chamber to answer. Absent an answer, the chair declares the sitting to be over, to be continued tomorrow or the day after, so the Senate never recesses for very long, just in case.

Now, with nominations coming fast and furious, the Senate is not going to have a recession (sounds weird, but whatever), especially not after the new Senate is sworn in on Jan. 3. So how could Trump threaten to make recess appointments? One of his lawyers has no doubt told him about Art. II Sec. 3 of the Constitution, which describes one of the president's powers:

He shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union, and recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient; he may, on extraordinary Occasions, convene both Houses, or either of them, and in Case of Disagreement between them, with Respect to the Time of Adjournment, he may adjourn them to such Time as he shall think proper; he shall receive Ambassadors and other public Ministers; he shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed, and shall Commission all the Officers of the United States.

This seems to give the president the power to adjourn Congress if two conditions are met: (1) it is an extraordinary occasion and (2) the chambers disagree. If the president can force an adjournment whenever he wants to, then the Senate's confirmation power becomes essentially null and void. That certainly wasn't the intention of James Madison & friends. Also, who gets to determine what an "extraordinary occasion" is? If it is the president, then again, the Senate can easily be rendered toothless. Needless to say, if Trump tries to invoke this clause, some senators will appeal to the Supreme Court and make the case that there is nothing extraordinary going on and Trump is merely trying to subvert the Constitution. They will also argue they should be allowed to end their "recess" at any time (i.e., less than 10 days). Will the Supreme Court allow the king—sorry, the president—to subvert the clear intent of the Constitution to require Senate confirmations for appointees except in emergencies? Beats us. We might find out early next year. (V)

U.S. Muslims May Not Be Woke, but They Are Now Awake

U.S. Muslim leaders are now shocked! Shocked! Donald Trump has nominated people who are planning to carry out the plans Trump shouted from the rooftops during his campaign. Many Muslims and their leaders voted for Donald Trump to stick it to Joe Biden, and then Kamala Harris, for the Biden administration's positions on Gaza. Rabiul Chowdhury chaired the "Abandon Harris 2024 campaign" and co-founded "Muslims for Trump." Now that Trump won, they were hoping for a seat at the table.

Instead of listening to them, Trump is doing exactly what he promised to do during the campaign, namely egg Israel on. For example, Trump picked Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) for Secretary of State. Early this year, Rubio said he believed Israel should destroy "every element" of Hamas, adding "These people are vicious animals." Trump's views and Rubio's views were not exactly secrets.

In addition, Trump picked Mike Huckabee as U.S. ambassador to Israel. Huckabee is an evangelical Christian who believes Jesus will eventually return to earth, but only if there is a Jewish state in the holy land. Huckabee backs the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and opposes a Palestinian state. He also once said: "There's really no such thing as a Palestinian."

Then there is Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who is headed to the U.N. She has called the U.N. a "cesspool of antisemitism." Trump has also promised to reinstate the Muslim ban on Day 1 of his administration.

Rexhinaldo Nazarko, executive director of the American Muslim Engagement and Empowerment Network, said "We are very disappointed." Hassan Abdel Salam, another co-founder of "Abandon Harris 2024" (which endorsed Jill Stein) said of Trump: "It's like he is going on Zionist overdrive." Salam seemed surprised. After all, Trump campaigned in Dearborn, so Salam just assumed showing up in Michigan meant that Trump would do what Muslims wanted. It apparently didn't occur to him that the 99.9% of the time when Trump was not in Dearborn he was very strongly pro-Israel and anti-Muslim. Nazarko and Salam must also have missed the Muslim ban the first time around.

Bill Bazzi, mayor of neighboring Dearborn Heights, said he believed Trump would work to end the war. He probably will, provided it ends with an Israeli military victory so he can get rid of the Gazans and turn Gaza into "Monaco South," a playground for the ultrarich.

The Muslim leaders are like the university students who protested the destruction in Gaza in the spring. They didn't like Joe Biden (and by implication, Kamala Harris), but didn't consider the fact that the alternative was 100x worse on the issue they cared about. Opposing someone you dislike is emotionally so much more satisfying than picking the lesser of two evils, but the end result may not be so satisfying. Welcome to politics. (V)

Trifectas Aren't Forever

The Republicans will have the trifecta in January and an undisputed leader of the party with very strong opinions on everything. He certainly knows that the Democrats picked up 41 seats in 2018 and could do very well in the House again in 2026. So he needs to get his program through in the first year. In the second year, the elections begin to dominate.

Trifectas aren't unusual. Here is a list of them since 1960:

Years	Length (years)	President(s)
1961-1969	8	John Kennedy/Lyndon Johnson
1977-1981	4	Jimmy Carter
1993-1995	2	Bill Clinton
2003-2007	4	George W. Bush
2009-2011	2	Barack Obama
2017-2019	2	Donald Trump
2021-2023	2	Joe Biden
2025-2027	2	Donald Trump

As you can see, in recent times they have generally lasted only one session of Congress. The reason is that the president's party typically gets walloped (or shellacked, as Obama put it) in the first midterm because his supporters are unhappy that he wasn't able to fulfill all his promises, despite controlling Congress, while at the same time the opposition is energized.

The country was optimistic and happy in the 1960s. There was peace and prosperity and the Civil Rights movement inspired many Black voters to switch to the Democrats, even though it was Republican Abraham Lincoln who freed the slaves. Consequently, the Democrats managed to hold the trifecta for 8 years. After the dour Richard Nixon's forced resignation, the young Jimmy Carter won and the country was optimistic again and he held the trifecta for his entire term. Ronald Reagan won huge majorities in the electoral college, but was never able to bring the House with him. Neither was his successor, George H.W. Bush.

Bill Clinton had the trifecta for 2 years, but Newt Gingrich engineered a massive Republican victory in 1994 with his Contract with America. Republicans flipped 54 seats in the House and ended up with 230. They stymied Clinton thereafter.

The Democrats flipped the Senate in 2000, denying George W. Bush the trifecta, but he got it in the 2002 election on account of 9/11 and held it for 4 years. After being reelected, he tried to privatize Social Security. That was a disaster, and Democrats won the Senate and House in 2006.

The two chambers stayed Democratic in 2008, when the young, dynamic Barack Obama swept into the White House in a huge wave. But the first-midterm jinx hit him hard in 2010 when the Republicans won 63 seats and ended up with 242. Democrats held the Senate, though.

Donald Trump got the trifecta for the first 2 years of his first term, but the reaction to him in 2018 was strong and Democrats flipped 39 seats and ended up with 235.

Joe Biden had the trifecta the first 2 years of his term, but lost it in the 2022 midterms when the Republicans flipped 9 seats to end up at 222.

In the 119th Congress, Republicans will control both chambers (narrowly), so there will be a Republican trifecta for at least 2 years. If they govern well, they might be able to hold it for 4 years, but with the margins small and Donald Trump trying to carry out an unpopular and extreme agenda, it might not last. If history is any guide, the reaction to Trump will be fierce and Democrats could break the trifecta in 2026, more likely by flipping the House than the Senate due to the Senate map (see below).

One of the reasons recent trifectas have been for only one session of Congress is that the party in power realizes it probably has only 2 years to get its program through, so it pushes the envelope. It often overreaches, trying for goals that even its own members are not united on. This unites the other side because it doesn't have to agree on actual policy issues (which it often can't). All it has to do is scream that the other guys are ruining the country. It usually works, at least for the House, which can change dramatically from cycle to cycle. (V)

Giuliani Turns over His 1980 Mercedes-Benz Convertible, Watches, and Diamond Ring

Rudy Giuliani is apparently starting to feel the heat, as the women he defamed, Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, have gotten a go-ahead signal from the court to start seizing his assets. He already turned over his Manhattan condo, but only after removing and hiding all the contents, despite the judge's instructions not to do so. As a next step, he has turned over his 1980 Mercedes-Benz convertible car that was once owned by Lauren Bacall, his luxury watch collection, and a diamond ring. Guiliani has also claimed to have instructed his bank to turn over $30,000 to the women. All this combined will come nowhere near his $148 million debt to them, though. Oh, and Giuliani is not happy about this, so he got himself a new lawyer, Joseph Cammarata. For Cammarata's sake, we hope he got paid in advance.

Friday was the deadline for Giuliani to turn over a long list of items to the women. While the items above are on the list, he has failed to turn over many others, including his Florida condo (where he is living since turning over his Manhattan apartment) and his collection of valuable World Series rings. He claims that he gave the World Series rings to his son long ago so they are no longer his to turn over. The women sued him over that claim. The trial will be on Jan. 16, 2025. Giuliani has objected to the date because he wants to attend the pre-inauguration festivities. It is unlikely that Donald Trump is keen on his going there, though, since Trump hates losers.

Since Giuliani has failed to turn over all the possessions the judge has ordered him to turn over, the judge could find him in contempt of court. However, Cammarata is claiming that many of the items Giuliani has withheld, including clothing, appliances, televisions, radios, computers, phones, and tableware, are exempt under state law.

Giuliani has been disbarred and so cannot practice law. Since few media outlets want anything to do with him, he has lost all his earning potential. He is not in a good situation now. (V)

Ann Selzer Is Hanging Up Her Telephone

Legendary Iowa pollster Ann Selzer is hanging up her phone and leaving the polling business altogether. The week before the election, she predicted that Kamala Harris would win Iowa by 3 points. This caused a huge stir, with many people thinking Harris was doing well in the Midwest. In reality, Harris lost the state by 13 points.

Could Selzer have survived, and kept doing polling for the Des Moines Register? Possibly, but with such a huge booboo, it would have been difficult and many people would not have taken her seriously anymore, even though until this year, she really did have a stellar record. But as it is with so many things, being great for 20 years followed by one spectacular failure means that all people remember is the one failure. For example, in 2008, she was the only pollster to predict that the unknown Barack Obama was going to sweep the Iowa caucuses and be on his way to getting the Democratic nomination. Nobody believed her, but she was right and everyone else was wrong. In 2016, Nate Silver published an article headlined: "Ann Selzer is the Best Pollster in Politics."

Selzer is 68 and told the Register earlier this year that she was not going to renew her contract with it. It is just a pity she is leaving on such a low note after having gotten it right for so many years. Use this link to download her valedictory video. (V)

Preview of the 2026 Senatorial Elections

The 2026 elections are practically upon us. Only 2 years to go. Taking the item above about the longevity of trifectas to heart, the Democrats absolutely have a chance to win back the House because every seat is up. The Senate is an elephant of a different color. After all, only a third of it is up, and it matters very much which third. Here is the preliminary 2026 Senate map showing who is up for reelection in each state (the gray states do not have a senate election in 2026):

Although the map is not as bad for the Democrats as the 2024 map (which had three Democrats in deep red states), it still isn't good. For nearly all the races, we can already predict with 90% certainty which party will win, although there could be a few retirements. The Democrats' best pickup opportunities are Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) has to fight for reelection in a blue state, and North Carolina, where Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) could be vulnerable if Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC), who will soon be private citizen Roy Cooper, with plenty of spare time on his hands, challenges him. The Democrats are going to pull out all the stops to get Cooper to run. Cooper is 67, but he is a team player and in Senate years, 67 makes him middle-aged, not old. After all, Sen.-elect Jim Justice (R-WV) is about to begin his Senate career, and he's 6 years (a.k.a. one Senate term) older than Cooper.

One seat that the Democrats are going to sweat bullets over is Georgia, where Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is on the ballot without the help of Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) to get Black voters to the polls. The Republicans are going to do everything they can to get outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) to run. However, he is almost certainly gunning for a run at the White House in 2028 and has to decide if first going for the Senate will help him. If he runs for the Senate and loses, he will be marked as a loser in his own state, which will make a presidential run more difficult. Ossoff is an incumbent, and 90% of incumbents win, so Kemp has to make a difficult decision.

There is a similar dynamic at play in Kentucky. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will be 84 in 2026 and he has health problems. He will very likely retire. This will leave an open seat for Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) to try for. He also has presidential aspirations and has to make the same decision as Kemp, but with the advantage of an open seat and the disadvantage of running in a deep red state. For him, we think he is likely to run for the Senate. After all, if he can win statewide for the fourth time (attorney general, 2x governor, Senate), he will have a very strong claim in 2028 to saying "I'm the second coming of Bill Clinton. I can win in red states." He is a moderate, but Democrats are so hungry to win and so scared of J.D. Vance, the progressives are likely to take ability to win a general election into consideration, even with Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) almost certainly in the mix. Newsom's problem will be convincing Democrats he can actually win after another San Francisco liberal, Kamala Harris, didn't. Of course, Newsom is a white guy.

None of the other states look competitive. None of the other Senate candidates are ancient, so we are not likely to get many retirements and thus open seats, which are easier to flip. (V)

Preview of the 2025-2026 Gubernatorial Elections

Virginia and New Jersey will elect governors in 2025. Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) is term-limited after one term and the Virginia governorship is always a battleground. New Jersey, not so much anymore. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) has already announced a run for it.

However, 37 states will elect a governor in 2026. Here is the breakdown by eligibility status in 2026:

• 12 states have a Democratic governor who may run for reelection
•  6 states have a term-limited Democratic governor
•  9 states have a Republican governor who may run for reelection
• 10 states have a term-limited Republican governor

Here is the 2026 gubernatorial map.

On the map, we are assuming Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD) takes the job at Homeland Security, which would make Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (R-SD) governor and eligible to run. We can't imagine why she would stay in South Dakota, since she's been trying to get out of South Dakota ever since she was elected to the top job. Besides, now that her favorite dog is dead, she has no reason to stay. Most likely, all the eligible governors will run again, unless Donald Trump taps them for a job in his administration. A few will get serious challengers, but many will not. Swing-state governors will certainly get challengers. These include Republicans Joe Lombardo (NV), Phil Scott (VT), and Kelly Ayotte (NH), as well as Democrats Katie Hobbs (AZ), Tony Evers (WI) and Josh Shapiro (PA).

The open seat with the biggest partisan battle will be Georgia. Democratic representative Lucy McBath might run.

Some of the biggest battles will be the primaries in deep-red or deep-blue open seats. For Democrats, that will be California, New Mexico, Colorado, and Michigan. For Republicans, the big prizes will be Ohio and Florida, but there could be primary battles in all the open red states.

In 2022, four states changed partisan control of the governor's mansion. Republicans picked up Nevada and Democrats picked up Arizona, Maryland and Massachusetts. Arizona and Nevada will be battlegrounds again, but with a sitting governor, it is harder to flip a state. (V)

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