Let the Games Begin

There were lots of interesting primary results yesterday, which gave some—but not a lot—of clarity. Let's run down the biggies out of Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas:

U.S. Senate, Texas (R): This seat is the big story of the night, and on the GOP side, things turned out almost exactly as expected, as Sen. John Cornyn and state AG Ken Paxton finished in a near dead-heat, 41.9% to 40.9%, with neither coming close to the threshold needed to avoid a runoff. So, the two of them will be facing off again on May 26.

As we have noted several times, the conventional wisdom is that voters know the incumbent, and if they don't vote for him or her, they want to throw the bums out. If so, then most of the 13% of voters who went for Wesley Hunt will migrate to Paxton, and Cornyn will be in trouble. To save Cornyn, the GOP is going to have to keep spending lavishly in the Lone Star State, to the tune of seven or eight figures a week (the current spending level) for another 12 weeks or so. Even if Cornyn pulls it out, that's millions and millions and millions of dollars that won't be available for the general election, or for other tight races.

U.S. Senate, Texas (D): The polling for this one was all over the place, with most pollsters giving a huge lead to either Rep. Jasmine Crockett or to state Rep. James Talarico. As it turns out, the last major poll of the race, from YouGov, was the most accurate. They had the final tally 53% for Talarico to 40% for Crockett, and when the votes were counted, it was 53% for Talarico and 46% for Crockett. That's still not great, and most of the other polls were a lot further off. The lesson: Texas is going to be tough to poll this year.

Take a look at these three maps of Texas:

Map #1 shows the 2024 presidential vote by county, with red being Trump counties and blue being Harris counties. Map #2 shows yesterday's Democratic primary results, with orange being Talarico counties and blue being Crockett counties. Map #3 shows the Black population of each county, with redder meaning Blacker.

If you pair map #1 and #2, the story they tell is a story of ratfu**king; a bunch of Trumpy voters chose Democratic ballots and voted for Crockett to try to stick the Democrats with the worst candidate. If this is the correct story, it's at least a little bit of bad news for Democrats, because it means that some of the "enthusiasm" that showed up in early voting is just ratfu**king. If you pair #2 and #3, by contrast, the story they tell is a story of identity politics. If this is the correct story, it's better news for the Democrats, and it means Talarico just needs to make sure to find a way to connect with Black voters. Since he speaks the language of evangelical Christianity, and since many Black Southerners are evangelical Christians, that is doable.

We do not know which story is the true one. Could be both. The only thing that is certain is that the Democratic Party got the candidate that it thinks is more electable. What he does with the opportunity will be one of the big stories of 2026.

Governor, Texas: There was little drama here, as both of yesterday's winners were overwhelming favorites. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is now officially the nominee for a fourth term, having crushed his challengers with 82% of the vote. He will face off against state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D), who crushed HER challengers with a slightly more modest 60% of the vote. There were just a shade over 2 million votes on each side of the contest, so the question of whether the record number of Democratic ballots cast was a product of Democratic enthusiasm, or just Republican ratfu**ing, will loom rather large over this contest, just as with the Senate seat.

TX-02: This is the seat of Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R). Soon, we will write that it WAS the seat of Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R). That is because he earned the booby prize for first sitting member to be primaried this cycle. The Representative, who was once a rising star in the GOP, toted the MAGA water 95% of the time. But that other 5% was too much; he was the only House incumbent running for reelection in Texas who did not get Donald Trump's endorsement, while the backstabbing Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) actively campaigned for Crenshaw's opponent. The result is that state Rep. Steve Toth (R) easily beat Crenshaw, 56% to 40.5%, and will surely be the next representative for this R+12 district.

TX-15: This red-leaning district is currently represented by Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R). The Democrats think they can win it back with the right candidate, and they got their preferred choice yesterday in Bobby Pulido, as he dispatched the more lefty Ada Cuellar, 68% to 32%. Pulido is not only Latino (something of a must in this heavily Latino district), he's also a Tejano music star. Imagine Snoop Dogg running for Congress from South Los Angeles, and you begin to get the idea. That said, Pulido also has a problematic history when it comes to social media postings; De La Cruz is likely to mention the ones that could be read as misogynist, at least once or twice.

TX-18: This race came about because of two major 2025 storylines. The first was the Texas mid-decade redistricting. The second was the death of Rep. Sylvester Turner (D). Due to the former, Rep. Al Green (D) jumped over to this district. Due to the latter, special-election winner Christian Menefee (D) is currently representing this district in the House. Green is legendary, but part of the old guard. Menefee is young and hungry, and part of the new guard. Yesterday, Texas Democrats favored the new guard by just a shade, as Menefee took 46% of the vote to 44.5% for Green. That means a runoff, though, and if there's any Texas representative who knows a thing about GOTV operations, it's Al Green. So, this could definitely go either way in May.

TX-23: Republicans in this red district were left to choose between two real prizes. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R) looks to have had an affair with his former staffer, who then committed suicide. Brandon Herrera is a gun fanatic to the point of being reckless; he thinks that every house, right next to the broom and the mop, should have an AK-47. They'll head to a runoff, as Herrera claimed 43.4% of the vote, to 41.7% for Gonzales.

TX-33: This was another district that saw some jumping due to the new district map. Rep. Julie Johnson (D) decided that she would like to remain in the House, and that TX-33 was the best chance to do that (her current district, TX-32, is about to get pretty red). Meanwhile, former representative Colin Allred, after he got out of the U.S. Senate race, decided that this district was his ticket back to Washington. This one is going to produce another runoff, albeit with the edge going to Allred, as he collected 44.8% of the vote yesterday to 33.7% for Johnson.

U.S. Senate, North Carolina: There was no suspense here. On the Republican side, Michael Whatley is boring and bland, but he used to run the RNC, and so he had the full backing of his party. He took 65% of the vote. On the Democratic side, Roy Cooper is a shade less boring, and he's won statewide six times. He took 92% of the vote. There were a little over 800,000 votes in the Democratic primary, as compared to a little over 600,000 in the Republican primary. Make of that what you will; this seat, of course, is a must-win for the blue team if they wish to have any hope of retaking the Senate.

NC-01: At R+1, this is one of two districts in the Tar Heel State that can be considered "swingy." The seat is currently held by Rep. Don Davis (D), who barely defeated retired Army colonel Laurie Buckhout in 2024. The district is now redder thanks to mid-decade redistricting, and Davis will face Buckhout again, as he was unchallenged yesterday while she won her primary with 39% of the vote.

NC-04: This D+23 district will remain in Democratic hands in the next Congress. But will those hands be the hands of the incumbent, Rep. Valerie Foushee, or her more lefty challenger, Nida Allam? With 95%+ reporting, Foushee has a slim lead, 49.2% to 48.2%. It's not quite over yet, but Foushee is certainly on the cusp of keeping her job. And note that North Carolina, unlike many Southern states, does not require an absolute majority for victory. A plurality is enough, as long as it's a plurality of greater than 30%.

NC-11: At R+5, this is the other swingy North Carolina district. Rep. Chuck Edwards (R) took 70% of the vote in his primary to win the right to run for reelection against Jamie Ager (D), who took 65% of the vote in his. Ager, a fourth-generation farmer, is basically North Carolina's answer to Graham Platner. Should be interesting to watch.

AR-04: We feel like we should at least mention Arkansas, since it also had a primary yesterday. The problem is that the state itself is R+15, such that Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) and Sen. Tom Cotton (R), who were both officially renominated yesterday, are going to cruise to reelection. The four house districts are R+8 to R+23, and all four have incumbents who are also going to cruise to reelection.

The fact that Arkansas politics is rarely competitive anymore is indicated by the fact that the majority of the statewide and federal races were uncontested on both sides of the aisle, and the races that WERE contested, save one, were decided by 50 points or more (for example, Cotton beat both of his foolish challengers by more than 70 points). The one and only legitimately competitive race was for the right to be the Democratic nominee in AR-04, where James Russell outpolled Steven O'Donnell, 53% to 47%. Russell appears to be a perfectly respectable candidate who might be a real threat in a purple district, but who will get absolutely leveled by Bruce Westerman in this R+20 district. That said, Russell gave us something to write about for Arkansas. So, in a sense, he's already a winner.

And there you have it. Next week is Mississippi, which is like Arkansas in that it has no competitive races (although one of the House districts, though not competitive, is blue). Also next week, and probably of greater interest, is the special election to pick a replacement for Marjorie Taylor Greene. (Z)

Good News for Nicole Malliotakis...

Well, we erred yesterday, in writing that current jurisprudence works against Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY). In fact, while she lost in state court in New York, the Voting-Rights-Act-hating U.S. Supreme Court rode to her rescue. Through use of the infamous shadow docket, the New York courts' decision is on hold until the appeals process can play out all the way. We did not see the news, because it was kind of drowned out by, you know, Donald Trump potentially starting World War III.

As is often the case with these unsigned decisions, we don't know exactly how the votes shook down. However, there was a concurrence from Samuel Alito, who drew on his vast experience with racial discrimination as a highly privileged white man, and shared his view that the whole cause of action is racist. There was also a dissent from the three liberal justices. That means there were at least four other conservative justices who voted with Alito—Chief Justice John Roberts is a safe guess, as are Associate Justices Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch. At least one, and probably both, of Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh and Associate Justice Amy Coney Barrett, also sided with the majority. Incidentally, two different New York courts had refused to stay the decision, so it would appear that five or six of the conservative justices know better than, you know, actual New York jurists.

The filing deadline in New York is April 6, and it's just not plausible that this gets resolved before then. So, Malliotakis gets one more nice, easy election in the R+10 NY-11. Thereafter, she's at risk of either losing her court case on appeal, or seeing her district redrawn by the legislature in the next round of mid-decade redistricting. But that's a problem for tomorrow, and not today. (Z)

...But Bad News for Nancy Mace

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) rarely seems to make it through a week without controversy. She certainly didn't make it through this week without any, as yesterday the House Ethics Committee announced it is investigating her for having "engaged in improper reimbursement practices." She is accused of padding her requests for housing reimbursements by about $10,000.

Mace is clearly a publicity-obsessed show horse, to the point of it being a mania. She also very clearly has anger management problems, and there are voluminous stories about her abusive behavior towards those whom she feels are beneath her (which is pretty much everyone). Finally, this is not the first time she's been accused of playing fast and loose with money that is not hers.

Given that this is old hat for her, there's only one reason we find this story to be of interest. Mace has already announced her retirement from the House, as she is running for governor of South Carolina. She's also about as popular with her House colleagues as Ted Cruz is with his Senate colleagues. Finally, she's not much of a team player. Most of the current Republican conference, we would guess, would hold on to their seats for dear lives right now, even if they were ill (like Neal Dunn of Florida), or even if they'd prefer to head for the doors, because the GOP's margin is so thin. But Mace seems very much like the type who might actually quit, perhaps out of spite. And if she did, then we would inch even closer to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) possibly losing his gavel. We're not there yet, but there are enough wild cards (Mace, Marge Greene's former district, the Tony Gonzales mess, Dunn's health, etc.) that "there" is at least within view. (Z)

We The People: Fisking Rolling Stone's List of Protest Songs

We didn't get to a "We the People" last week because of the long and boring speech we had to listen to and then write up. But we return to normal order today with the entry that was originally going to launch the series, namely an examination of Rolling Stone's list of "The 100 Best Protest Songs of All Time." These lists are calculated to generate debate (and, perhaps, outrage) and we're going to take the bait:

Five Songs that are Ranked Too High:

1. "Deportee (Plane Wreck at Los Gatos)," by The Byrds (Ranked #95): We do not have a problem with including this song. But we do have a problem with the Baby Boomers at Rolling Stone including THIS version of it. The correct choice was the original version by Woody Guthrie, which inspired sympathy and support for the immigrant workers killed in a plane wreck in 1948, and helped lay the groundwork for the rise of the United Farm Workers.
   
   
2. "41 Shots (American Skin)," by Bruce Springsteen (Ranked #28): The Boss, who has produced dozens of important protest songs in his career, is going to place ONE song on the list, and this is going to be it? A fine song, but c'mon. If he only gets one song, it should be "Born in the U.S.A."
   
   
3. Give Peace a Chance," by John Lennon (Ranked #19): This may be famous, but it's hard to say it was impactful. And it's not even one of Lennon's 10 best protest songs. We prefer "Working Class Hero," but if you want impact, then how about "Revolution"?
   
   
4. "Them Belly Full (But We Hungry)," by Bob Marley (Ranked #12): Recall how Bad Bunny responded to the Super Bowl hullaballoo, and all the negativity, with an overwhelmingly positive message? Well, the Rastafarian Marley was running that playbook decades before Mr. Bunny was born. Yes, some of Marley's songs were pretty pointed, but his enduring songs were largely the ones that urged people to fight hate with love. Like, for example, "One Love" or "Positive Vibration." Note also that the list already has a social-criticism/resistance Marley song, namely "Get Up, Stand Up," so can't we get one uplifting song, too? And if it has to be two social-criticism/resistance songs, then shouldn't the second one really be "I Shot the Sheriff"?
   
   
5. "A Change Is Gonna Come," by Sam Cooke (Ranked #1): A great song, and something of an atomic bomb when it originally dropped, but it doesn't speak to different populations, and it didn't cross generations. Should it be on the list? Yes. Top 20? Sure. But #1? There are better choices. And, by the way, five of the top ten songs on the list are from the 1960s. It would be hard to think of anything that is more of a Rolling Stone cliché than that factoid.

Five Songs that are Ranked Too Low:

1. "I Am Woman," by Helen Reddy (Ranked #73): When we think "feminist anthem," there are three songs that immediately come to mind. One of them was ranked very high on the list. One was ranked kind of low. And one didn't make the list at all. This is the one that was ranked kind of low. It should be at least 20-30 spots higher.
   
   
2. "For What It's Worth," by Buffalo Springfield (Ranked #38): Obviously, the 1960s were an era of protest, and so there are many iconic protest songs. We tend to think that the tiebreaker, when trying to choose which to rank highly, should be "Did the song find an audience among later generations?" You don't find too many people listening to "Eve of Destruction" or "The Vietnam Song" anymore. On the other hand, "For What It's Worth" is still around. It was, for example, the basis for the Public Enemy song "He Got Game," recorded 30 years after "For What It's Worth."
   
   
3. "God Save the Queen," by The Sex Pistols (Ranked #27): We take the view that this is the seminal punk song (or maybe one of a small handful of them). It's also the second-highest-rated punk song on the list, behind only "Oh Bondage, Up Yours " by X-Ray Spex, at #23 (and note, Green Day, which placed "American Idiot" at #24, is NOT a punk band, despite what some American idiots who work for MTV would tell you). In what world do ZERO punk songs make the Top 20 of a list of the greatest protest songs? And in what world is a moderately well-known song from an otherwise forgotten band ranked ahead of not only the Sex Pistols, but also the Ramones, the New York Dolls, the Clash, MC5, and the Dead Kennedys (and of those bands, only the Clash and the Dead Kennedys made the list at all). We do lists a fair bit ourselves, for the Saturday Q&A, and so we know well that every "obvious" entry you add means some other entry has to go (or has to be moved down the list). But still, punk got short shrift, and there's no excuse for implying that "Oh Bondage, Up Yours" is somehow the greatest punk song of all time. And, by the way, if WE were choosing a Sex Pistols song, we would choose "Anarchy in the U.K." And if that's a little too on point, then we'd go with "E.M.I."
   
   
4. "Fuck tha Police," by N.W.A (Ranked #10): There is a direct line from this song (and the album it was on) to the L.A. Riots of 1992. Few songs can claim that kind of real-world impact. The song also helped trigger a discussion about race and about police misconduct that eventually brought down the bigot who was running the L.A.P.D. back then, Daryl Gates. This song should be in the Top 5.
   
   
5. "Respect," by Aretha Franklin (Ranked #4): This is the feminist anthem that ranked highly. It is even more famous as a Black anthem. The fact that it crossed divides like that, and that it is still well remembered today, almost 60 years after its release, would have made it our choice for #1.

A Dozen Songs that are Aren't on the List, But Should Be

1. "Yankee Doodle," by Richard Shuckburgh and Edward Bangs (1755): This song was originally intended to mock Americans. Then, in the same way that Americans of African descent took possession of 'Black' and LGBT Americans took possession of 'queer,' Americans took possession of "Yankee Doodle," and it became an anti-British rallying cry. You could argue it's America's first protest song, and if you did argue that, you'd probably be right.
   
   
2. "The Star Spangled Banner," by Francis Scott Key (1814): Another anti-British rallying cry, albeit from a different war. In the two-plus centuries since, the song has taken on an interesting quality that would not be true of most protest songs, in that the message of protest is very different depending on who is performing it, and how they are doing so. Consider the difference between, say, Lee Greenwood playing the song at the Republican National Convention and Jimi Hendrix playing it at Woodstock. And note that one of those two performances is the one we linked, but you'll have to click to find out which, because there's just no way you could guess, otherwise.
   
   
3. "Wade in the Water," by Unknown (Early 1800s): The folks at Rolling Stone take the position, it would seem, that protest songs began around 1940. It is hard to fathom, given the editors' pretensions to progressive political thinking, that they did not include a single slave spiritual. "Wade in the Water" is, at very least, a reference to the Book of John, and thus a song about how those who are enslaved will one day be saved, either in this life or the next. There is also much evidence that it was a literal song of resistance, containing an encoded message about how to escape from slavery (to wit, if you wade across a river, tracking dogs can't follow your scent, and so can't find you).
   
   
4. "Get Off The Tracks," by Jesse Hutchinson Jr. (1844): Similarly, abolitionism was America's first great left-wing protest movement, and maybe its first great protest movement of any political stripe (this somewhat depends on whether cordwainers, or Jacksonians, or nativists, or Freemasons count as a protest movement). Jesse Hutchinson Jr. and his family undertook national tours as The Hutchinson Family, and their pro-abolition songs, particularly "Get Off The Tracks," most certainly won converts to the cause.
   
   
5. "Give Us a Flag," by Septimus Winner, et al. (ca. early 1863): During the Civil War era, it was commonplace to take existing songs and adapt them for new uses. The original "Give Us a Flag" was a song written by Winner to persuade white men to join the Union Army in 1861. After the Emancipation Proclamation was promulgated on January 1, 1863, some unknown person updated the lyrics to apply to Black soldiers. Though we don't know who did it, we have a pretty good idea of when, since the demand to allow Black men to fight in combat, just like white men, only made sense from the issuance of the Proclamation (January 1, 1863) to the first combat experience of regular Black Union troops at Fort Wagner (July 18, 1863; there had been some combat for irregular Black troops before that).
   
   
6. "I Didn't Raise My Boy to Be a Soldier," by Alfred Bryan and Al Piantadosi (1915): We don't expect the folks at Rolling Stone to be professional historians. But given that their list includes at least 10 anti-Vietnam War songs, you would think they might be aware that there are anti-war songs for other wars, as well. We could name an anti-war song from the Civil War here, but we've already named enough songs from that era, and besides, the anti-war songs of that time (e.g., "Weeping, Sad and Lonely (When This Cruel War is Over)") largely did not reach a broad audience. "I Didn't Raise My Boy to Be a Soldier" was really the United States' first mega-hit anti-war song. The fact that the U.S. eventually entered World War I a couple of years later does not change the fact that anti-war sentiment was very high in the U.S. when the song was released.
   
   
7. "Which Side Are You On?," by Florence Reece (1931): There are three things about the list that are truly shocking, in our view. The first, as we discuss above, is the lack of any songs from slavery/the Civil War. Again, the headline promises the 100 greatest protest songs of All Time. The third, we will address in a moment. And the second is that there's not a single song related to labor protest. The labor movement has been one of the greatest sources of protest music for the last 200 years, give or take. Now, when you make a list like this, you often kinda have to use one entry to reference an entire genre of music, or body of work, etc. So, we do not suggest there should have been, say, ten labor anthems on there. But maybe at least one, as a tip of the hat to this very important musical tradition? As you can see, we favor "Which Side Are You On," which was written for a mine strike in Kentucky. But we would also not object to "Joe Hill" or "Casey Jones (the Union Scab)."
   
   
8. "Rocket 88," by Jackie Brenston and His Delta Cats (1951): Rolling Stone tends not to do "subtlety." So, most of their choices are songs that explicitly refer to "The Man" or "The Cops" or use curse words or other inflammatory language. But before a genre can get to that point, the music generally has to be more subtle in order to be subversive. "Rocket 88" was made at a time when white audiences would accept easy listening music from Black artists like Nat "King" Cole, but nothing more risqué or edgy. So, Ike Turner (the fellow behind Jackie Brenston and His Delta Cats) ran with that, and wrote a song about his Oldsmobile 88 that was really a song about his dong ("gals will ride in style, movin' all along"). Oh, and in so doing, he may also have created the first rock and roll song.
   
   
9. "You Don't Own Me," by Lesley Gore (1963): This is the feminist anthem that did not make the list, and it's also the third real shocker. (Z) has a colleague who has taught a class about feminism in American culture. As you can imagine, there is a lecture about feminist music. And every song in that lecture comes from 1968 or later, except this one. "You Don't Own Me" anticipated where things were headed, and was a staggering 5 years ahead of the curve. In pop culture, 5 years is a lifetime. And THOSE 5 years, in particular? Think about the Beatles' biggest hit in 1963 ("I Want to Hold Your Hand"). Then think about their biggest hit in 1968 ("Hey Jude" or "Strawberry Fields Forever"). "You Don't Own Me" came out at the "I Want to Hold Your Hand" end of that spectrum. It's absolutely mind-boggling that Rolling Stone did not include it, so much so that we checked four times to make sure we did not overlook it. After that issue went to print, they must have said to themselves "How did we overlook Lesley Gore?"
   
   
10. "Ballad of the Green Berets," by S.Sgt. Barry Sadler (1966): Though Rolling Stone seems to think otherwise, not all protest songs are left-wing. Maybe that's why the Ramones didn't make the list; Johnny Ramone was a hardcore right-winger, and argued that all punk rock was fundamentally about conservatism. In any case, if it was our list, we would have included at least one right-wing protest song, and we think the anti-counterculture song "Ballad of the Green Berets," which was actually the best-selling protest song of the 1960s, is a good pick. That said, we would also give a long look to "Sweet Home Alabama" by Lynyrd Skynyrd and "Okie from Muskogee" by Merle Haggard.
    
    
11. "Rapper's Delight," by The Sugarhill Gang (1979): The story here is pretty much an Ibid. for "Rocket 88," except replace "rock and roll" with "rap." "Rapper's Delight" is subtle, because it had to be when it came out. But it also launched a genre, and the most important protest genre of the last half century. It's 14:37 long (unedited), and its impact is probably best summed up by Chuck D of Public Enemy: "A lot of you might think that was a long-ass record, but the irony is, when it came out, it wasn't how long it was, but how short it was." The Rolling Stone list does include the other "founding" song of rap, namely the much edgier "The Message" by Grandmaster Flash & The Furious Five. We would have found room for both.
    
    
12. Anything by Jesse Welles: It seems pretty clear to us that he's the modern-day answer to Bob Dylan, or Woody Guthrie, or Phil Ochs. Those fellows all have songs on the list, and Dylan and Ochs have more than one. How about one spot for Welles?

Note that we must limit our assessment to the U.S. and to English-language songs, because those are the areas in which we have expertise, and because that is the focus of the Rolling Stone list (despite the over-broad headline to the contrary). There are undoubtedly a lot of very important songs that fall outside of this scope.

Still, the Rolling Stone list does a pretty good job of reminding readers of the rich history of American protest music. And the Rolling Stone list PLUS our fisking? We flatter ourselves that this adds up to an even better job, though we concede this ended up being rather longer than expected.

Next week, this feature will address a different subject... we think. (Z)

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